As the American public heads to the election polls next month, the world watches closely. Voters face the choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, each offering starkly opposing visions for the future of America.
As high stakes threaten to alter the nation’s political direction over the next four years, understanding the candidates’ approaches is crucial to potential voters and spectators alike.
Donald Trump has remained a polarising figure following his 2016 election victory and subsequent loss in 2020. His campaign rhetoric has historically relied upon distrust, scandal, and the proliferation of “fake news”. Thus far, this election proves no different. Though misinformation claims and fraud charges surrounding the former president have significantly eroded public trust, a Republican victory is still on the cards.
Kamala Harris rose to national prominence when nominated as Joe Biden’s vice-presidential candidate in 2020. After a successful campaign, Harris became the first black and South Asian American woman to serve as Vice-President of the United States. With President Biden choosing not to seek re-election in 2024, Harris has stepped into the spotlight as the Democratic Party’s nominee.
However, Harris has not always been popular. In her first year as Vice-President, her public approval rating dropped as low as 28%. During her vice-presidency, many critics argued that she facilitated little meaningful change.
The United States operates on what is known as the electoral college system. This mechanism, created by the U.S. Constitution, indirectly elects a president and Vice-President based on a set number of electors each state receives.
Each state is assigned a number of electors based on its population. California, the most populous state, has the highest number of electors, at 54. Comparatively, sparsely populated states such as Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota have the minimum of three electoral votes. There are 538 electors in total, and thus candidates need 270 votes to win.
Many flaws have been highlighted in the electoral college system. In most states the candidate who wins the popular vote receives all of that state’s electoral votes. However, it is possible that the candidate who receives the highest number of individual votes nationwide may still lose the election.
This has occurred in two of the previous six presidential elections. In 2016, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by receiving 304 electoral college votes, despite Clinton outpacing him by almost 2.9 million in the popular vote.
Due to the electoral college system’s state-based nature, swing states play a huge role in determining the victor. Also known as battleground states, these are not historically affiliated with either political party, and thus, with their unpredictable outcomes, become pivotal in acquiring the required 270 electoral votes.
In the coming election, these states are Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, collectively holding 93 electoral votes. Both campaigns are actively targeting voters in these key states.
Successful performance in presidential debates remains a crucial and valuable means for vote acquisition in these undetermined areas. Aired on September 10, in a tense 90-minute broadcast, Harris and Trump first went head-to-head on issues including the economy, immigration, and abortion.
According to public consensus, Harris appeared to lead much of the debate. With digs at Trump’s campaign techniques and “boring” national rallies, her Republican opponent was left consistently on the defensive.
Trump, in line with much of his historical campaign rhetoric, led his side of the debate with some bold claims. One which has since garnered significant media attention was his claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio are “eating the pets of the people that live there“. This claim has been confirmed to be false.
In a CNN flash poll, 63% of registered voters agreed that Harris performed better than Trump. Harris has since “gladly” accepted an invitation from CNN to debate Trump for a second time on October 23. Trump, however, dismissed the idea as being held “too late.” After Harris’ vicious drive against him on September 10, the former president appears rattled.
Since entering the race in July, Harris has led national presidential polls, currently standing at 48.0% as opposed to Trump, who stands at 46.8%.
However, polling accuracy has been historically disputed. In 2016, pre-election polls indicated a clear lead for Clinton, the Democratic nominee, over Trump. Yet election day votes defied this pattern, confirming an electoral college majority for Trump. Although it can provide clues, polling data cannot provide a definite prediction ahead of November 5.
With votes cast at the beginning of November, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue their drive to victory at all costs. But who will prove victorious? This will hang in the balance of a few key voters in swing states, who will inevitably alter the trajectory of global politics moving into 2025.
