The Middle East has entered one of its most volatile periods after the United States and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran on 28 February, killing the country’s Supreme Leader and triggering a conflict that has since spiralled.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when pro-Western ruler Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was overthrown by Ruhollah Khomeini, who abolished the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic, Iran has viewed Israel as an illegitimate state and the United States as an imperial aggressor, dubbed the ‘Great Satan’, who is working to undermine their sovereignty and influence across the region. Iran operates as a hybrid political system, blending republican institutions such as elections with overarching control by an unelected clerical leadership.
Israel and the US, meanwhile, have spent decades pointing to Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes as an existential threat. Trump, in particular, has continued to warn that “when crazy people have nuclear weapons, bad things happen”. The claim that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon is one that Tehran, and many nuclear experts, have continued to deny.
This is not the first time that grievances have escalated. In 2015, Iran and six world powers agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, soon into Trump’s first term as President, he withdrew the US from the agreement and reimposed sweeping sanctions, a move that “stoked outrage” in Tehran. Attempts to revive the deal under the Biden administration were also unsuccessful.
In June 2025, a confrontation occurred when the US and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military sites during a 12-day war.
Diplomatic efforts seemed promising earlier this year, but this collapsed on 27 February when President Trump said he was “not happy” with the direction of the negotiations. Hours later, strikes began.
The opening wave of attacks targeted missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership compounds in Tehran. Since then, the conflict has only worsened. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-aligned states in the Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have targeted Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv, while Israeli authorities report 16 civilian deaths from missile fire since the war began. Fighting has also spread into Lebanon, where Israeli forces have intensified strikes on Hezbollah positions.
The US and its Arab allies have condemned Iran’s attacks, arguing that “the targeting of civilians and of countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless”. On 14 March, the Palestinian group Hamas spoke out to urge its Iranian ally to “avoid targeting neighbouring countries”, while simultaneously affirming Iran’s right to defend itself against US and Israeli attacks.
US and Israeli forces have struck sites linked to Iran’s supposed nuclear programme. Key energy hubs, including Kharg Island and the South Pars gas field, have been hit, contributing to global market instability. Israel’s Defence Minister and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the initial strikes as “pre-emptive“, aimed at removing any imminent threats.
Perhaps the most globally consequential front, however, is the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea lane connecting the Arabian/Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas. Iran has been accused of attacking commercial vessels in the strait, effectively shutting it down.
On 21 March, Trump gave Tehran 48 hours to reopen the strait or face the obliteration of its power plants. Iran’s response was equally stark: interfere, and it would cause “irreversible destruction” to desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. This infrastructure is considered to be the most sensitive civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, performing the critical role of turning seawater into drinking water.
On 26 March, Israel claimed to have killed the Iranian navy chief who was overseeing the blockade of the Strait. Netanyahu pointed to the attack as “yet another example” of the co-operation between Israel and the US towards achieving the objectives of the war.
To worsen the situation in the Strait, major oil and gas producers have already suspended operations after strikes on key facilities, sending energy prices soaring. Brent crude briefly hit $115 per barrel on 30 March, rising 3% just overnight.
Stock markets have also reacted sharply. The FTSE 100 fell 11% between the end of February and March, but has since rallied as Trump hints towards an end to the war. He claims that talks with Iran remain “productive“, while the UK and France are working to build a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz “once conditions allow”.
Meanwhile, Iran continue to deny direct communications with The White House, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists Israel will continue targeting Iran and Hezbollah, emphasising that they will “protect” their vital interests “under any circumstances”. Iranian officials claim that Trump is simply trying to manipulate markets in favour of US interests and “buy time” by alluding to positive negotiations.
The human cost of the conflict is already catastrophic. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran group, at least 3,400 have been killed as of 31 March, including over 1,500 civilians. One of the deadliest incidents occurred on 28 February, when Iran accused the US and Israel of bombing a girls’ school near an IRGC base in southern Iran, killing 168 people, including around 110 children.
Access for international journalists continues to be extremely limited and dangerous, and Iran has imposed near-total internet restrictions, making independent verification difficult.
While these human consequences may seem thousands of miles from Manchester, for many students here, it is not distant at all.
With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and global oil and gas production reduced, energy prices are rising, affecting heating and electricity costs, something that many students were already struggling to afford amid the cost-of-living crisis. While the Middle East only forms a modest share of Britain’s oil and gas imports, energy prices are set globally, not locally, meaning that disruptions in any part of the world can affect prices everywhere.
Petrol prices are at a 28-month high, sitting at an average price of £1.52 a litre, and food prices may follow a similar pattern as supply chains absorb the consequences of higher fuel costs, in addition to what farmers report to be 50% increases in the cost of some fertilisers. This is due to the fact that many of the world’s largest fertiliser manufacturing sites are located in the Gulf, with a third of the global fertiliser trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Not only this, but Manchester is also home to a large Middle Eastern international student community. For many from the region, family members may be in immediate danger and communication blackouts have made it difficult to contact loved ones.
Importantly, travel to and from the region is heavily disrupted. The UK Foreign Office continues to warn against all but essential travel to most nations in the Middle East. The situation continues to be unstable, with airspace in some parts of the region partially reopening and then soon closing again.
Flights from the UK to parts of Asia and Australia are also facing difficulties, as airlines are having to avoid flying over affected airspace.
On 10 March, British Airways announced that they had cancelled all flights to and from Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Tel Aviv until later this month and to and from Abu Dhabi until later this year.
Speaking to an international student from Dubai, it is clear that the conflict is posing an enormous emotional weight that, in their words, “doesn’t just turn off”. The student, in their final year at UoM, describes the difficulties of trying to finish their degree while navigating messages from home and monitoring news updates late into the night.
“It’s not something you expect to happen”, they told The Mancunion, “there’s no mental preparation for it, there’s no blueprint”. They emphasise the everyday moments, like walking to a lecture or sitting in the library, when “your mind starts wandering, and then it just suddenly hits you”.
They also describe the particular loneliness of watching from afar. Manchester carries on. The city does not stop. Yet, for some students here, the conflict is all they can think about: “Unless you’re the one refreshing the news, or waiting for a text back, it’s very hard to understand what it feels like … these are our people, these are our homes, this is the place that we love. And distance from all of that doesn’t make it any easier”.
Practical consequences also compound the emotional ones. The student describes that uncertainty around travel has been truly destabilising, noting how they were supposed to go home for Easter, and now can’t, with the same prospect also looming for the long summer. And the possibility that their family won’t be able to attend their graduation is one particular thought that seems to hit home the most: “if they can’t be here, it’s not just disappointing- it’s devastating”.
For many of us in our final year, the pressure of university life is being felt. But for students from affected regions, this pressure has become something else entirely: “When you’re trying to produce your best academic work”, the student explains, “but you’re so scared for the people you love most in the world- those two things don’t really co-exist… I’m carrying just this enormous emotional weight around that doesn’t just turn off when I need to study, or I need to focus”.
They are critical too, of how the conflict has been reported in the UK, with the media tending to skip past the human cost amid broader geopolitical framing: “for those of us with our loved ones there, that’s a very frustrating thing to witness”.
War is always, at its core, about people. And the people living through this one, whether in Tehran or Dubai or watching from a university library in Manchester, are those who will feel the consequences of this conflict for years to come.
The University of Manchester put out a statement on 2nd March, their only statement thus far, which states that they are “closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East”, with their teams “contacting colleagues and students in the affected countries”.
The student we spoke with praised the University’s swift initial response, but noted that meaningful support has largely come from individual staff and their specific department, rather than from the institution as a whole. For students already overwhelmed, having to navigate a maze of different emails and resources can be its own burden. The University, they suggest, could work to make support “feel less like something you have to seek out and more like something that’s just there for you”.
When asked for comment, a spokesperson from the University of Manchester said: “We understand how deeply upsetting the conflict in the Middle East is for many of our students, and we’re listening carefully to what they are telling us. We are working closely with the Students’ Union to make sure students who are affected feel supported and know where to turn.
“Over the past few weeks, we’ve contacted students from the affected countries directly to highlight the support available. On Thursday, we wrote to all taught students with clear information on wellbeing services and 24/7 resources, outlining how we can help if their studies are being affected, and clear guidance for anyone thinking about travelling over the Easter break. We have also issued guidance to schools encouraging them to apply the Mitigating Circumstances process with sensitivity and proportionality, for example, not asking for excessive documentation and, where possible, taking evidence at face value.
“The colleagues that students work with day-to-day in their schools or departments often make the biggest difference and have been working hard to offer personalised support to students who have been impacted. We will continue to review what more we can do as this situation unfolds”.
