Reform’s rapid rise might be hitting a bit of a snag.
Their polling surge from Spring 2024 onwards has largely plateaued since summer, hovering around 30%. A crisis in Kent council, which they control, has led to the expulsion of several councillors from the party after a leaked Zoom meeting showed council head Linden Kemkaran berating her colleagues. Reform MP Sarah Pochin’s complaints about adverts “full of black and Asian people” have drawn national ire, with Farage calling the comments “wrong and ugly” but ultimately defending their sentiment.
These are not the first stress tests Reform have endured. In June, Zia Yusuf dramatically quit his role as party chairman, only to inexplicably return two days later in a new executive role, leading efforts to cut government waste. Reform have also lost dozens of councillors since May’s local elections, and have both gained and lost two MPs this year, keeping their head count in Parliament at five.
Despite these pressures, Reform have kept their heads above water throughout. But their year-long rise, peaking in their sweeping success in May’s elections, has certainly slowed.
Caerphilly’s October by-election, for which opinion polls had predicted a narrow victory for Reform, was won decisively by Plaid Cymru, with a reported surge of young voters possibly carrying the centre-left Welsh nationalist party to victory.
One election, where Reform still comfortably came second, does not alone spell trouble. But combined with their obvious disorganisation and a myriad of internal conflicts, conversations about tightening the party are undoubtedly taking place.
Yet Reform’s greatest challenge may not be coming from these controversies, or even the insurgent Greens, who thus far seem to be drawing mostly from progressive former Labour supporters and younger voters, demographics distinct from Reform’s older, working-class base.
In fact, Reform may turn out to be a victim of its own early success.
In the councils that Reform currently control, their bold, radical image has come with little change in direction. Councils operate on complex systems of finances and powers, and are often ensnared by national laws, budgetary allowances from Westminster, and existing commitments. Reform councils have successfully removed LGBT flags and renamed departments, but their record on more meaningful issues is unimpressive, with councils considering tax increases and failing to carry out any economic audits – all in stark contrast to their flagship money-saving commitments.
While councils can effectively stand against national governance, such as socialist-ran councils did in Liverpool during the Thatcher years, such tactics require internal cohesion and solidarity, and an established local power base – advantages that Reform lacks.
None of this is keeping Farage up at night. Reform still holds a commanding lead over every other party, who are converging at 17% and battling for second place. Immigration continues to be the highest priority for British voters, and Labour and the Conservatives alike are unsuccessfully pouring their efforts into matching Reform’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. Meanwhile, despite the Green’s recent surge, the left has yet to eat into Reform’s core support.
But facing accusations of being “do-nothings”, wasting £75,000 on new flags, and consistently failing to balance budgets, Reform has yet failed to prove its ability to manage the country beyond fear mongering over immigration. If they can’t get their act together, their time in the sun may be shorter than expected.
