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Day: 30 October 2011

Stage set as France prepares to cast judgement on Sarkozy

Written by Thomas Turner on . Posted in Opinion.

With a beleaguered incumbent, a rejuvenated Socialist Party and a worrying yet unpredictable threat posed by the far right, France is set for its most intriguing presidential election in recent history with less than six months to go until polling day.

Whilst President Nicolas Sarkozy is almost certain to confirm his place as the centre-right UMP candidate on April’s ballot – alongside François Hollande of the Socialist Party and Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National – the verdict of the French electorate will be intriguing on both a national and European level, as France continues to find itself immersed in the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis.

Deeply unpopular and routinely lambasted for his extravagant lifestyle, the outlook is bleak for the man they call ‘Sarkule’ (a pejorative nickname coined in response to his regressive policies). A recent poll suggested that 68% of voters would not like to see him re-elected, despite the considerable international approval the President amassed over his handling of the conflict in Libya. Even the birth of new daughter, Giulia, seems unlikely to soften the hearts of the disillusioned French public, who have become increasingly hostile towards their notoriously brash leader.

Sarkozy’s apparent failures have revived a Socialist Party which has been electorally dormant since Hollande’s namesake, François Mitterand, retired from the presidency in 1995. This time around, more than 2.8 million voters participated in the party’s first ever presidential primaries, which saw the moderate Hollande emerge victorious over Martine Aubry. Many have suggested that the pioneering primary season has brushed off the Socialists’ dated image, and their position at the forefront of media coverage over recent months has gifted the party the exposure they so greatly desired. Sitting firmly on the centre-left of French politics, Hollande has seemingly positioned himself towards the centre ground in an attempt to sway disillusioned UMP voters. However, it is his concerted effort to present himself as an ‘everyman’ which is currently proving his most potent weapon in a country growing tired of the current leader’s ‘celebrity presidency’.

Just as there is a Sunday in every week, there seems to be a Le Pen involved in every French election – and this year is no different as Marine Le Pen attempts once more to detoxify the Front National brand crafted over the decades by her father, Jean Marie. Fighting on the all-too-familiar dual platform of immigration and Euroscepticism, Le Pen is convinced that she can better the party’s shock second place of 2002. Certainly, there is some sympathy for her point of view, but despite her evident popularity in certain regions, it remains doubtful whether she can gain widespread support for her radical policy programme.

UMP optimists keen to play up Sarkozy’s chances of turning things around will of course point to the dire situation that Jacques Chirac found himself in six months before the 1995 election – one which he went on to win comfortably. Sarkozy’s natural charm and dogged campaigning will most likely see an election result far closer than is currently being predicted, but with Monsieur Hollande enjoying a 64-36 advantage over Mr Sarkozy in an October run-off poll it appears that the French electorate are unconvinced by accusations from the UMP camp that Hollande is too inexperienced to deal with the current economic turmoil.

Should Hollande lead the Socialists to victory in France, it will perhaps mark a change in attitudes towards the social democratic and socialist parties on the continent who were punished so heavily by European voters in the wake of the financial crisis. Whilst Gordon Brown’s Labour government was defeated by the Conservatives in this country, Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced he would not stand again at the next election amidst plummeting poll ratings. In Portugal, Jose Socrates was forced to resign as Prime Minister after a vote of no confidence in June.

With many deeming the 2012 election more a judgement on President Sarkozy than a battle between ideologies, the suggestion of a resurgence of social democracy in Europe may yet prove to be premature. In any case, the situation is becoming desperate for ‘l’Omniprésident’, regardless of the size of his well documented platforms.

“Every Libyan should be rich” – how Gaddafi squandered oil trillions

Written by Fahim Sachedina on . Posted in Opinion.

The unrestrained jubilation in Libya following the death of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, which ended his 42 year reign as one of the world’s most feared dictators, is not only a response to the grim conclusion of a brutal regime that curtailed democracy in the region for so many decades. For all of the human rights abuses and increasingly bizarre decisions he made, perhaps Gaddafi’s greatest failure was the way in which he squandered Libya’s monumental oil riches, only to line the pockets of his closest associates and cronies.

One of the twelve members of OPEC, Libya played a pivotal role in manufacturing the oil crisis of 1973. According to the organisation, revenues from Libya’s oil sector contribute around 95 percent of its export earnings and at least 25 percent of its GDP. Nevertheless, this sparsely populated nation of just six million people has suffered inexorably from severe inequalities facilitated by the Gaddafi regime, with approximately one third of Libyans living below the national poverty line. “Divide the trillions which the country’s oil has produced since the early 1970s by six million and everyone in Libya should be a multi-millionaire. Not so”, says the BBC’s World Affairs Editor, John Simpson, explaining the sheer absurdity of the economic situation. “Libya may not be dirt poor like Sudan or Yemen, but the comfortable capitalism of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt is entirely missing”.

The vast amount of oil produced has disproportionately benefited the few under Gaddafi’s hand, and left the masses in disarray. A cursory glance over the despot’s personal portfolio gives us some indication of where these riches might have disappeared to. Born into a rural, poverty-stricken farming area just outside Sirte, and raised in a Bedouin tent in the desert, Gaddafi somehow amassed a personal wealth of billions of dollars. In recent years, the Gaddafi family has had more than $30 billion of assets seized or frozen in the United States, Canada, Austria, Switzerland and the UK. Some of his less hefty investments include a 7.5% share in Italian football club Juventus, a $120 million private jet (complete with Jacuzzi and cinema), and $455 million worth of property across west London. For a man who claimed to live a simple, unluxurious life, it is an astonishing collection.

Alas, history cannot be reversed and the Libyan people must look forward to a brighter future. As of January 2011, Libya has total proven reserves of 44 billion barrels of oil – by far the largest reserves in Africa. Many more reserves are said to have a legitimate founding beneath Libyan soil. However, the civil war has reduced the need for drilling and shipping equipment, whilst the legal framework for managing oil money was destroyed long ago. In spite of this, Libya is forecast to produce 2.2 million barrels of oil per day over the next decade, before a gentle decline to 1.6 million barrels per day. By 2030, the country will have produced a further 35 billion barrels – no mean feat for a country responsible for only 2% of the world’s oil production. As such, it is imperative that the new Libyan administration understands that maintaining the current balance of demand and supply is paramount when it comes to oil production.

The existence of a legitimate policy framework for the benefit and redistribution of resources to the Libyan people disintegrated long ago. Today, an uncertain cloud hangs over Libya, but the potential output of Libya’s oil reserves is yet to be reached and as such the path to prosperity is clearly there for the taking.

Moving forward, Libya should not encumber itself with economic vested interests as it has done in the past. The new administration must set up a system for oil companies to negotiate contracts for finding, retrieving and supplying oil. It is imperative that oil companies feel reassured in their terms and conditions; only then will trade flourish under the right provisions, rather than in favour of foreign interests. “It’s extraordinary how the Gaddafi regime squandered so much oil wealth and left it a deprived country in terms of infrastructure. The country will need oil revenues to recover”, says Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of a seminal history of the oil industry. Incredulous at Gadaffi’s wastefulness, Yergin is in no doubt that placing a priority on reforming the country’s oil industry is fundamental if we are to see a long overdue improvement in the standard of living of the Libyan people.