Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are closely tied in a recent November poll from YouGov ahead of the Senedd 2026 election. The polling has placed Reform UK second, just one percentage point behind Plaid Cymru. The remarkable results show the contrast between the centre-left Welsh nationalist party and the far-right British nationalist party. Plaid Cymru prioritises Welsh independence, reintegration within Europe, and tackling climate change as part of their 2024 manifesto, entirely opposing Reform UK’s agenda. These vastly different parties are now at the forefront of Welsh politics, which underscores a broader desire for change but with no clear consensus on how the change should be formatted.
What the polls reveal
The poll resulted in the following voting intentions: Plaid Cymru: 24%, Reform UK: 23%, Labour: 23%, Conservatives: 19%, Green: 5% and Liberal Democrats: 5%.
A following question asking “’If there were a Senedd election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’” yielded slightly different results. Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK all tied with 16%, followed by respondents who said they wouldn’t vote (15%) and don’t know (13%). The Liberal Democrats and Green party polled bottom with 4% each.
The dynamic of Welsh politics has shifted dramatically since 2023 polling, which saw Labour in the lead, followed by Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. Reform UK has experienced the most significant surge as they achieved their highest-ever placing in Welsh parliamentary polling, while the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party remained further behind.
What a change in the voting system means
It is evident that the Welsh people want a change from the dominant party system they feel has failed them, whether that be left or right-wing politics. Welsh Labour has been the biggest party in the Senedd since its founding in 1999, however, with changes to the voting system ahead of the 2026 election, Labour’s dominance may disappear.
A new closed-list Proportional Representation voting system is replacing the Additional Member voting system. This means that seats are distributed on the percentage of votes each party or independent candidate receives, replacing the First Past the Post method currently used for 40 out of the 60 Senedd seats. The change will also introduce 16 constituencies, each represented by 6 Members of the Senedd (MSs), where people vote for a political party or independent candidate instead of individual candidates as they do in the current system.
Proportional Representation is significant for Reform UK because it creates a greater opportunity for smaller parties to gain recognition, especially when their vote share in the UK general election was already high. This will also benefit Reform UK because people want a change in party politics. Welsh Labour is seen to be failing, with November polling suggesting only 15% of people think the UK government is doing a good job. Welsh Labour will find it hard to separate their reputation from that of Westminster’s Labour who are proving growingly unpopular. It’s currently too early to call how exactly the desire for change will unfold.
The growing influence of Reform
The threat of Reform is particularly present in the Valleys, a region in South Wales where Reform polled second in most constituencies in the 2024 UK general election. The Valleys thrived during the Industrial Revolution, which focused on coal mining and heavy industry, but by the 1980s, most coal mines had been closed, creating a lack of access to high-quality work. Following Cardiff and Newport, the Welsh index of multiple deprivations acknowledges Merthyr Tydfil as consistently ranked among the most deprived areas in the country.
Nigel Farage’s presence in these areas of Wales includes the launch of Reform’s ‘contract’ in Merthyr Tydfil and a high-profile conference in Newport. By connecting to communities experiencing economic and social deprivation, a growing issue in Wales, Reform UK is seen as an alternative to the failing Labour government, who are seen to be ignoring issues in these communities, such as NHS waiting times or the decline in school performances and instead discussing policies such as the 20mph speed limits, unpopular amongst the population.
Farage has declared the Senedd elections his party’s priority for 2026, signalling the growth of Reform UK in Wales is something to watch closely. While questions remain about the accuracy of these polls, particularly given the small sample sizes and the 18-month gap until the election, the trends are undeniable. The combination of Reform UK’s rising popularity, the introduction of Proportional Representation, and the party’s outreach to economically deprived communities will make it a significant force in Welsh politics moving forward.
