Oscar Predictions 2015: Who Will/Should Win

Best Picture:

The Nominees: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash.

Will Win: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood has been winning every ‘Best Film’ award in sight, and our contributors reckon that the Oscars won’t be an exception, with 86% saying that it will be taking home the top prize on Sunday. The remaining votes were divided evenly between a couple of bold voters saying that Birdman (7%) or Selma (7%) will pull off an upset victory.

Should Win: Boyhood is the contributors’ favourite in an ideal world too, albeit with a slightly less convincing 44%. Birdman (25%), Whiplash (25%) and The Theory of Everything (6%) have devoted fans as well.

Best Actor:

The Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything).

Will Win: Lead Actor is apparently going to be a closely fought battle between current frontrunner Eddie Redmayne (47%) and sentimental favourite Michael Keaton (40%). A few contributors reckon that Bradley Cooper and Steve Carell have a chance too, with each of them taking 7% of the vote.

Should Win: It’s an even closer contest among our contributors’ personal favourites, with Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne tied on 40%. Steve Carell also has a decent base of support with 13%, and Bradley Cooper took the remaining 7% (sorry Benedict).

Best Actress:

The Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild).

Will Win: Julianne Moore has been sweeping just about every award out there for Still Alice, but while our contributors as a whole reckon she’ll win, only 47% say she has it in the bag. Many of our contributors think that Rosamund Pike (27%), Reese Witherspoon (13%) or Marion Cotillard (13%) could emerge as a surprise winner on Oscar night.

Should Win: All of our leading ladies have supporters, but Rosamund Pike was the ultimate favourite in the fantasy scenario with 33% saying that her chilling turn in Gone Girl should win. Julianne Moore, Felicity Jones and Marion Cotillard each took 20%, and Reese Witherspoon found favour with 7% of our voters.

Best Supporting Actor:

The Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash).

Will Win: J.K. Simmons is the runaway favourite to take home gold on Oscar night, with 80% saying that the statuette has his name on it. The remaining 20% is split between a few ballsy voters who reckon that Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke or Robert Duvall will shock everyone by beating Simmons to the win.

Should Win: 69% of our contributors think that J.K. Simmons deserves his near-certain win, but Mark Ruffalo (19%) and Edward Norton (12%) also have fans.

Best Supporting Actress:

The Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods).

Will Win: Things seem to be looking positive for Boyhood’s Patricia Arquette, who has 67% of our contributors saying she’ll win. Keira Knightley and Emma Stone both have a shout as well with each getting 13% of the ‘will win’ vote, and Laura Dern has some hope with 7%.

Should Win: A slightly closer call in the ‘should win’ category, but Patricia Arquette still leads at 53%. Emma Stone follows in a close second with 40%, and Keira Knightley won the hearts of the remaining 7%.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler.

Will Win: The Original Screenplay category appears to be relatively up in the air, with Birdman ending up in an unconvincing lead with 33%. 27% reckon that The Grand Budapest Hotel is winning this, 20% say Boyhood, 13% say Foxcatcher and 7% say Nightcrawler. This is one to keep our voters on the edges of their seats as they watch the ceremony, it seems.

Should Win: It’s almost as closely contested in the dreams of our voters, but with a different order of preference. 38% are rooting for Nightcrawler to win the Original Screenplay trophy, while sizeable support was also found for Birdman (25%), Foxcatcher (19%), The Grand Budapest Hotel (12%) and Boyhood (6%).

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Nominees: American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash.

Will Win: It’s going to be a battle of the biopics in Adapted Screenplay if our voters are to be believed – The Theory of Everything is at the head of the pack at the moment with 40% of the votes, while The Imitation Game and American Sniper each took a healthy 27%. The final 6% was taken by some hopeful voters saying that Whiplash will win.

Should Win: 50% of the wishful-thinking votes went to Whiplash, with Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Inherent Vice following in second place with a decent 18% of the vote. The Theory of Everything and American Sniper took 13% each, and The Imitation Game brought up the rear with 6%.

Best Animated Feature:

The Nominees: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya.

Will Win: With the shocking absence of former frontrunner The LEGO Movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems to be in prime position to take this prize, scoring 53% of the vote. But Disney’s Big Hero 6 (20%) and Studio Ghibli’s The Tale of Princess Kaguya (13%) are also in with a sound chance, and there’s even a small possibility it could go to Song of the Sea or The Boxtrolls, each of which have 7% of our contributors’ votes.

Should Win: The LEGO Movie, of course. But seeing as we’re restricting ourselves to the given nominees, we’ve ended up with a tie between How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Big Hero 6 (31%) for our contributors’ favourite. There were also fans of Song of the Sea (15%), The Tale of Princess Kaguya (15%) and The Boxtrolls (8%) among our ranks.

Best Foreign Language Film:

The Nominees: Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales.

Will Win: Russia’s Leviathan is the clear favourite to win this trophy, with 64% saying that Cannes won’t be its only place of recognition. Poland’s Ida was the only other film to get votes, taking other 36%.

Should Win: Same two-way battle here with the same result, only slightly less decisive this time. Leviathan ended up with 57% of the votes here, and Ida took 43%.

Best Cinematography:

The Nominees: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken.

Will Win: Our contributors think that Emmanuel Lubezki can already celebrate a second consecutive win in this category – his showy and daring work on Birdman got 60% of the vote. The distant challengers to Lubezki are The Grand Budapest Hotel (27%) and Mr. Turner (13%).

Should Win: If our contributors had it their way, it would be Robert Yeoman’s cinematography for The Grand Budapest Hotel (63%) that takes home gold. Surprisingly, veteran DP Roger Deakins’ work on Unbroken got no votes, with the rest of our team voting for Birdman (19%), Mr. Turner (13%) and Ida (5%) as their personal preferences.

Best Visual Effects:

The Nominees: Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar, X-Men: Days of Future Past.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar winning Best Visual Effects seems like one of the surest things of Oscar night, with 80% of our trusty contributors saying it’s got the trophy in the bag. The remaining few votes were scattered between Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, X-Men and Guardians of the Galaxy.

Should Win: The film itself may have been somewhat divisive, but 50% of our contributors still think that Interstellar deserves this prize. The rest of the votes were split evenly between Guardians of the Galaxy and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.