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18th February 2015

Oscar Predictions 2015: Who Will/Should Win

James Moules shares the results of The Mancunion’s Oscar Predictions Poll, in which the Film Section’s editors and contributors told us who they think will win in the major categories on Oscar night, and who they reckon should win if it were solely down to them

Best Picture:

The Nominees: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash.

Will Win: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood has been winning every ‘Best Film’ award in sight, and our contributors reckon that the Oscars won’t be an exception, with 86% saying that it will be taking home the top prize on Sunday. The remaining votes were divided evenly between a couple of bold voters saying that Birdman (7%) or Selma (7%) will pull off an upset victory.

Should Win: Boyhood is the contributors’ favourite in an ideal world too, albeit with a slightly less convincing 44%. Birdman (25%), Whiplash (25%) and The Theory of Everything (6%) have devoted fans as well.

Best Actor:

The Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything).

Will Win: Lead Actor is apparently going to be a closely fought battle between current frontrunner Eddie Redmayne (47%) and sentimental favourite Michael Keaton (40%). A few contributors reckon that Bradley Cooper and Steve Carell have a chance too, with each of them taking 7% of the vote.

Should Win: It’s an even closer contest among our contributors’ personal favourites, with Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne tied on 40%. Steve Carell also has a decent base of support with 13%, and Bradley Cooper took the remaining 7% (sorry Benedict).

Best Actress:

The Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild).

Will Win: Julianne Moore has been sweeping just about every award out there for Still Alice, but while our contributors as a whole reckon she’ll win, only 47% say she has it in the bag. Many of our contributors think that Rosamund Pike (27%), Reese Witherspoon (13%) or Marion Cotillard (13%) could emerge as a surprise winner on Oscar night.

Should Win: All of our leading ladies have supporters, but Rosamund Pike was the ultimate favourite in the fantasy scenario with 33% saying that her chilling turn in Gone Girl should win. Julianne Moore, Felicity Jones and Marion Cotillard each took 20%, and Reese Witherspoon found favour with 7% of our voters.

Best Supporting Actor:

The Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash).

Will Win: J.K. Simmons is the runaway favourite to take home gold on Oscar night, with 80% saying that the statuette has his name on it. The remaining 20% is split between a few ballsy voters who reckon that Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke or Robert Duvall will shock everyone by beating Simmons to the win.

Should Win: 69% of our contributors think that J.K. Simmons deserves his near-certain win, but Mark Ruffalo (19%) and Edward Norton (12%) also have fans.

Best Supporting Actress:

The Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods).

Will Win: Things seem to be looking positive for Boyhood’s Patricia Arquette, who has 67% of our contributors saying she’ll win. Keira Knightley and Emma Stone both have a shout as well with each getting 13% of the ‘will win’ vote, and Laura Dern has some hope with 7%.

Should Win: A slightly closer call in the ‘should win’ category, but Patricia Arquette still leads at 53%. Emma Stone follows in a close second with 40%, and Keira Knightley won the hearts of the remaining 7%.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler.

Will Win: The Original Screenplay category appears to be relatively up in the air, with Birdman ending up in an unconvincing lead with 33%. 27% reckon that The Grand Budapest Hotel is winning this, 20% say Boyhood, 13% say Foxcatcher and 7% say Nightcrawler. This is one to keep our voters on the edges of their seats as they watch the ceremony, it seems.

Should Win: It’s almost as closely contested in the dreams of our voters, but with a different order of preference. 38% are rooting for Nightcrawler to win the Original Screenplay trophy, while sizeable support was also found for Birdman (25%), Foxcatcher (19%), The Grand Budapest Hotel (12%) and Boyhood (6%).

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Nominees: American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash.

Will Win: It’s going to be a battle of the biopics in Adapted Screenplay if our voters are to be believed – The Theory of Everything is at the head of the pack at the moment with 40% of the votes, while The Imitation Game and American Sniper each took a healthy 27%. The final 6% was taken by some hopeful voters saying that Whiplash will win.

Should Win: 50% of the wishful-thinking votes went to Whiplash, with Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Inherent Vice following in second place with a decent 18% of the vote. The Theory of Everything and American Sniper took 13% each, and The Imitation Game brought up the rear with 6%.

Best Animated Feature:

The Nominees: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya.

Will Win: With the shocking absence of former frontrunner The LEGO Movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems to be in prime position to take this prize, scoring 53% of the vote. But Disney’s Big Hero 6 (20%) and Studio Ghibli’s The Tale of Princess Kaguya (13%) are also in with a sound chance, and there’s even a small possibility it could go to Song of the Sea or The Boxtrolls, each of which have 7% of our contributors’ votes.

Should Win: The LEGO Movie, of course. But seeing as we’re restricting ourselves to the given nominees, we’ve ended up with a tie between How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Big Hero 6 (31%) for our contributors’ favourite. There were also fans of Song of the Sea (15%), The Tale of Princess Kaguya (15%) and The Boxtrolls (8%) among our ranks.

Best Foreign Language Film:

The Nominees: Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales.

Will Win: Russia’s Leviathan is the clear favourite to win this trophy, with 64% saying that Cannes won’t be its only place of recognition. Poland’s Ida was the only other film to get votes, taking other 36%.

Should Win: Same two-way battle here with the same result, only slightly less decisive this time. Leviathan ended up with 57% of the votes here, and Ida took 43%.

Best Cinematography:

The Nominees: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken.

Will Win: Our contributors think that Emmanuel Lubezki can already celebrate a second consecutive win in this category – his showy and daring work on Birdman got 60% of the vote. The distant challengers to Lubezki are The Grand Budapest Hotel (27%) and Mr. Turner (13%).

Should Win: If our contributors had it their way, it would be Robert Yeoman’s cinematography for The Grand Budapest Hotel (63%) that takes home gold. Surprisingly, veteran DP Roger Deakins’ work on Unbroken got no votes, with the rest of our team voting for Birdman (19%), Mr. Turner (13%) and Ida (5%) as their personal preferences.

Best Visual Effects:

The Nominees: Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar, X-Men: Days of Future Past.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar winning Best Visual Effects seems like one of the surest things of Oscar night, with 80% of our trusty contributors saying it’s got the trophy in the bag. The remaining few votes were scattered between Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, X-Men and Guardians of the Galaxy.

Should Win: The film itself may have been somewhat divisive, but 50% of our contributors still think that Interstellar deserves this prize. The rest of the votes were split evenly between Guardians of the Galaxy and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

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