After months of celebrating 2019’s most widely appreciated and beloved films, the awards season is coming to an end. With only a few days to the Oscars ceremony, it is time to predict which films will take the big prizes.
Although the race was initially proclaimed by many to be between Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood, The Irishman, and Parasite, it was the Golden Globes that reshaped the awards season. Sam Mendes’ 1917 won both for best directing and best drama film, and quickly emerged as the frontrunner for the Oscar triumph.
However, the most crucial turning point of the season was the Producers’ Guild Award going to 1917. With 8 out of the last 10 films awarded at the PGAs later winning Best Picture, Sam Mendes’ war epic has further proved to be the most likely 2020 Academy Award winner.
The only film that seems to stand a chance against 1917 is Parasite, beloved by almost everyone. But no foreign-language film has ever won before, and it seems to be a barrier too difficult to overcome.
The race in this category has followed a similar pattern to the Best Picture race. After months of debating whether it will be Scorsese, Tarantino or Bong Joon-Ho to take the Oscar, it was Sam Mendes who surprisingly won the Golden Globe and, later, the Directors’ Guild Award.
Only once in the last decade was the DGA awarded to someone who didn’t later win the Oscar. It leaves us with the 1917’s director as a lock for Academy Awards success.
Acting categories couldn’t seem more predictable, with every precursor award going with the same four winners. If there was an upset coming, we should have seen it somewhere.
It didn’t happen, so the Oscar winners are going to be Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood) in the best lead and the best supporting actor category, respectively. The award for the best actress will go to Renee Zellweger (Judy) and for the best supporting actress to Laura Dern (Marriage Story).
The best original screenplay category is one of the few in which the Academy tends to recognise unconventional and more art-house films. Maybe not with last year’s winner, Green Book, but definitely with 2018’s Get Out and 2017’s Manchester by the Sea.
Moreover, this is probably the only above-the-line category in which Parasite may be awarded. Although Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood was the frontrunner for a long time, it was the South Korean film to win the BAFTA last Sunday. And I predict that the same will happen at the Academy Awards.
As Greta Gerwig’s Little Women came out in late December, it started to be perceived as an example of a perfect adaption. While giving a classic novel a new life, she has also made significant changes to the plot and made it more attractive to contemporary audiences.
However, the Writers’ Guild Award and the BAFTA were awarded to Jojo Rabbit, and Little Women has not received much appreciation from the film industry. This category is one of the most difficult to predict this season, but I think that the recent awards give Jojo Rabbit a slight edge.
Below are my predictions in all other categories at this year’s Oscars. Additionally, I’ve put the most probable upset after ‘//’ in three categories which I’m least confident about.
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Documentary Feature: American Factory
International Film: Parasite (South Korea)
Film Editing: Parasite
Visual Effects: 1917 // The Irishman
Production Design: Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
Costume Design: Jojo Rabbit // Little Women
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Sound Editing: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
Animated Short: Hair Love
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Live Action Short: The Neighbors’ Window // Saria