It has been just over a year since the October 7 attacks on Southern Israel launched by Palestinian militants from Hamas. But while the bloodshed of Israel’s response in Gaza has continued with hardly a pause since, the conflict expanded at alarming pace when Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon, its neighbour to the north, at the beginning of October. Bombardment and fighting between Israel and Lebanon, Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, one of the most prominent anti-Israeli leaders, and Iranian missiles fired at Israel all followed in quick succession.
So how did the fighting in Gaza spill over into Lebanon and what do the various players want – or want to avoid – as war threatens to escalate into regional or even global conflict?
For context, Hezbollah are an Iranian-backed Lebanese militia, formed in 1982 to fight the Israeli invasion. Many consider it the most powerful non-state group in the Middle East. More than 60 countries and international organisations consider Hezbollah to be a terrorist organisation. Despite this, it holds significant power in Lebanon and gained 13 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member parliament during the 2022 election.
On October 7 2023 over 1,200 people, mainly civilians, died as a result of the Hamas attacks in Israel together with over 250 hostages taken into the Gaza Strip. In response, Israel started a full military assault on Gaza. Since the beginning of October last year more than 41,000 have been killed in Gaza – mostly civilians, and amounting to one in 55 of the pre-war population.
The following day, October 8, Hezbollah attacked Israeli positions on disputed land along the Lebanese-Israeli border as well as in the Golan Heights, a disputed territory between Israel and Syria. Violent altercations in this disputed area of land have been ongoing for almost 50 years. The UN Blue Line was created as a de facto border to ease tensions regarding the border dispute, but both sides have violated the line – the most infamous example being Israel’s continued occupation of Northern Ghajar.
Hezbollah have repeatedly labelled its attacks as a “support front” aimed at drawing Israeli military resources away from Gaza and supporting Palestinians. Hezbollah have made it abundantly clear that their motivation for attacking parts of Northern Israel is in response to the atrocities being committed in Gaza by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah stated prior to his death that “if there is a ceasefire in Gaza then our front will also cease fire without discussion, irrespective of any other agreement or mechanisms or negotiations.”
The American Jewish academic Norman Finkelstein commented on Nasrallah’s words, interpreting this ceasefire guarantee as almost being a plea. For Finkelstein it is evident that Hezbollah does not want a war. By contrast, Israel argues Hezbollah is dedicated to the destruction of Israel. As Iran’s proxy, Israel argues Hezbollah has been in a continuous state of war against it for many years, bombarding northern Israeli settlements with repeated missile attacks which increased after October 8 last year, causing the displacement of tens of thousands of Jewish settlers.
The conflict escalated further on September 17, as nearly 3,000 people in Lebanon were injured when Hezbollah pager devices exploded. Some of the victims were civilians, either because explosions occurred in crowded areas or because not all devices were owned by Hezbollah members.
At least 32 people were killed, among them two children. Former CIA Intel Analyst Ray McGovern refers to the idea of “plausible deniability” when asked about Benjamin Netanyahu’s potential involvement in the targeted attacks. McGovern says it is unclear whether the order was sent by Netanyahu regarding pager attacks,“but he can claim to have been uninformed if he so chooses”.
September 27 was another significant day, with the death of Hassan Nasrallah as a result of an air strike in Beirut conducted by the Israeli military. Nasrallah was an incredibly influential leader and his death has delivered a devastating blow to Hezbollah.
On September 30, The Israeli military announced a ground operation in southern Lebanon, as Israeli troops began their first invasion of Lebanon in almost two decades in pursuit of Hezbollah. The magnitude of the effects of the invasion are already apparent, as analysts say Israel’s heavy bombardments have killed about 1,300 people and displaced more than one million since late September.
It is hard to overlook Israel’s increased focus on Lebanon this autumn; first came the pager attacks, followed by assassinations, followed by a land invasion. The reason for this is because of a new objective to get Israeli citizens back into Northern Israel, after they fled due to Hezbollah attacks. After getting bogged down in Gaza and failing to achieve its objectives there, namely destroying Hamas and getting its hostages back from Gaza, Israel are taking the fight to Hezbollah.
Further escalation of the conflict took place when Iran launched more than 180 missiles at Israel on October 1. Israel and its top ally, the United States, said their respective militaries worked together to shoot down most of the nearly 200 projectiles. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the missile strike on Tuesday was targeted at Israeli military and intelligence bases. The Israeli military opposed this by describing the attack as “indiscriminate.” On October 26, Israel targeted Iranian military sites in response.
Iran’s escalation of the conflict comes in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah. This retaliation may seem extreme but Finkelstein believes that “Iran knows that if Hezbollah fall, they fall”. The stakes are incredibly high. Iran gains standing from Hezbollah as a leading opponent of Israel, as a group which liberated Lebanon in 2000 and fought Israel to standstill in 2006. Iran knows that if Hezbollah goes down then Iran’s Islamic Revolution would be fatally wounded and they will lose their front man in their fight against Israel.
This conflict is an increasingly polarising topic with extremes on both sides. It has been a year of war, anguish and loss in the Middle East with no foreseeable end. The world now waits in anxious anticipation to see how this seemingly ever-escalating conflict will evolve.
