After a long leadership contest with many twists, turns and surprises, the Conservatives have finally picked their new leader… only just. Kemi Badenoch won 56.6% of the vote, beating Robert Jenrick, making this the closest leadership race since party members were permitted to vote in 1998. With membership slumping and turnout low, what can we draw from these results, and how can we expect Badenoch to shape the battered and bruised Conservative party?
‘Swing towards the right’
The Tory membership has always leaned to the ideological right of the parliamentary party, being much more staunchly ideological than MPs. In August, 51% of members said they thought the party should move to the right and target Reform UK voters. Perhaps it is no surprise that members were split between two right-wing candidates.
Kemi Badenoch, elected to parliament in 2017, has always been on the right of the party. She became somewhat of a darling to the Tory right due to her willingness to engage in controversial cultural issues, such as LGBTQ+ rights or institutional racism.
As junior Equalities Minister under Boris Johnson, she made headlines when she refuted the notion there was ‘widespread institutional racism’ in Britain.
Later as a cabinet minister in charge of women and equalities, she spearheaded the government’s blocking of Scotland’s Gender Recognition Bill, and said that gender identity services in the NHS had been “highjacked by critics” and that critics were “gagged”.
All of this suggests that Badenoch as Tory leader will attempt to make ‘culture war’ issues key to her pitch to the British people. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, called it the “boats, boilers and bathroom” strategy: “focusing very much on the trans issue, the immigration issue and scepticism about progress towards net zero.”
Bale also said that the party would “swing to the right [..] in terms of economic policy”, in favour of a more Thatcherite vision for the economy.
Have they learned anything?
This is not the first time that Conservatives have been booted out of power in favour of the Labour party. It happened in 1945, 1964 and in 1997. So, surely, they know something about realigning themselves to the public, right? Kind of.
It seems to be a quirk of British political parties that when they lose an election, they think it’s because they weren’t authentically themselves. When Labour lose an election they elect a leader to the left of the party (see Ed Miliband) and when the Tories lose they elect a leader of the right (see Ian Duncan Smith). So, it seems that Tory members have elected to maintain this tradition in backing Badenoch for leader.
Historically, this method is doomed to fail. Modern British elections are won when parties move towards the centre, attempting to bring back voters who voted against them last time. Kemi Badenoch’s move to the right, then, isn’t likely to bring back voters who abandoned the Tories for Labour in the North or those in the South who went to the Lib Dems.
Looking forward
So what does all this mean for the future of the Conservative party? It’s simply too early to tell. Knowing the Conservative Party, Badenoch may not even be the leader at the time of the next election. Seriously. Research done by Opinium showed that 43% of the public, and 36% of 2024 Conservative voters, think it unlikely that the newly elected leader will be in place by the next General Election.
James Cleverly ruled out serving on the new shadow cabinet, but failed to “rule anything [else] in or anything out” sparking speculation he could run for the leadership within this parliament.
However long Badenoch remains leader, it is clear she is facing an uphill battle. After their worst result in history, the Conservatives would have to pull a historic turnaround to win the next General Election. Although, it is worth remembering, that Labour turned their worst seat count since 1935 to a landslide victory in under five years.
In this new, volatile era of British politics, anything is possible.
