While many had hoped for a consequential shift in Irish politics, Ireland’s 2024 election showed that the status quo would continue with the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition returning to government in 2025. After three days of counting, all 174 seats in the Dáil were filled, with Fianna Fáil coming out with 48 seats—a gain of 10 TDs (members of the Irish parliament).
Ireland’s voting system of Proportional Representation with Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) uses ranking in order of preference on the ballot to seat multi-member constituencies. Since none of the three largest parties gained enough seats to win an outright majority, a deal has once again been made between Ireland’s two centre-right parties with a group of independent politicians to form a coalition government. In the deal, Micheál Martin—Fianna Fáil leader—will hold the position of Taoiseach for the first three years of government, with Fine Gael’s Simon Harris then taking over in November 2027.
With the Green Party being virtually wiped out of the Dáil, losing 11 of its 12 seats, and only Roderic O’Gorman narrowly keeping his seat, it became clear that they would not be an option to become a junior partner again in the new coalition government. Coming just short of a combined overall majority, the two parties will now rely on the support of a small group of independents.
The exit poll had suggested that Sinn Féin had led the election, however, the final vote share actually showed a Fianna Fáil lead with 21.9% of the vote, Fine Gael on 20.8% and Sinn Féin on just 19%.
The polling company Ipsos Behaviour and Attitudes blamed low voter turnout for errors in the exit poll with both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil’s final vote share being outside of the margin of error of 1.4%. National turnout dropped around 3% from February 2020 (62.9%) to around 59.7%.
The two ruling parties managed to maintain their vote share despite overall low popularity which can be attributed to general satisfaction among older, middle-class voters. In contrast, Sinn Féin suffered due to its younger voter demographic declining in this election. The decision to call the election appeared to be a tactical move by Harris, aiming to capitalise on Sinn Féin’s first significant drop in the polls in five years.
Polling at around one third of the vote between 2021 and 2023, Sinn Féin were often viewed as a government-in-waiting following their breakthrough in the previous election. Their focus on housing costs over the previous decade appealed to younger, lower-income voters who have not felt a benefit from the consecutive Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael governments, and may have abstained out of frustration in previous elections.
While it wasn’t necessarily a disappointing result for Sinn Féin, with 39 TD’s, their hopes for a left-block coalition government led by Mary Lou McDonald became virtually impossible. Finishing with 19% of the first preference vote signified a sharp drop from the 24.53% in 2020.
The stabbing of a woman and three children in Dublin last November led to violent riots across the city. This amplified protests across the nation against the placement of refugees in small towns, particularly in hotels. Where other parties were able to capitalise on immigration, Sinn Féin’s more liberal stance on migration lost them electoral momentum where they struggled to make clear policy.
The party also saw a small decline in support due to party in-fighting and scandals in recent months. This has led to increased distrust with some voters as they struggled to pull the focus from internal strife back to its housing policy which created momentum for them in the previous election.
Despite this, far-right candidates struggled to make much progress and were unable to emerge as a significant force despite indications of their growing popularity. With only 6% of voters noting immigration as a top issue, far-right candidates failed to gain increased influence in the Dáil. Other left-leaning parties such as Labour and the Social Democrats were both successful in gaining support, each bringing 11 TDs into the new Dáil.
Michéal Martin was formally appointed as Ireland’s new leader in January 2025. This appointment was delayed after Parliament erupted in a row over whether some of the independents supporting the government would be given opposition speaking time.
With a coalition now reached and a programme for government now ratified, the new government is set to take office. In a political climate that is rejecting incumbents, Ireland’s return to the existing order of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be disappointing for many who had hoped for pivotal change in the Irish political landscape.
