What began the tensions?
Tensions had been simmering between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) following their defeat in battle at the hands of the Kuomintang in 1934. The Kuomintang at that time were the predominant government force and ruled China during the Sino-Japanese war from 1937-1945. The subsequent Civil War resulted in the Kuomintang losing to the Chinese Communist Party, seeing them retreat to Taiwan and establish the island as the base for the Republic of China Government in 1949.
Since, tensions with the CCP on the mainland, who govern as the People’s Republic of China, have ebbed and flowed. Attempts at reunification, notably China’s proposal of a ‘one country, two systems’ framework in 1991, have largely been rejected by Taiwan, which continues to function independently. Today, the majority (67%) of Taiwanese citizens identify as primarily Taiwanese, with only 3% considering themselves Chinese. However, with 28% of the population still adopting both identities, it is clear that the issue of national identity remains complex.
Why has the situation escalated recently?
Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, such complexity has only worsened as his government’s determination for reunification continues to rise. In fact, Xi Jinping has vowed that reunification must be achieved by 2049, and has not ruled out the use of force to fulfil this goal. While China’s growing global influence makes this objective seem increasingly feasible, Taiwan is far from giving up. The island has repeatedly elected the pro-independence Democratic Progressive party, with their latest victory in January 2024 marking their third consecutive term, and perhaps their most nationalistic yet.
Current President Lai Ching-te is a vocal advocate of Taiwanese sovereignty, a stance that culminated in a hugely significant National Day Speech in October 2024. During the speech, Lai Ching-te reaffirmed his commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan, resting on the argument that Taiwan outdates the modern PRC state by nearly 40 years, making it impossible for China to be its motherland. His words have only intensified Beijing’s hostility, who now openly label him a “separatist“.
The real danger here however lies not in political rhetoric but in the military action that has followed his speech. Since October 2024, China has continuously launched military drills off the coast of Taiwan, flying People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone 255 times in January 2025 alone. With Chinese naval vessels also spotted near Taiwan’s coastline, a full-scale attack on the island is possibly being simulated. With security on high alert, the risk of conflict only continues to heighten.
So, what is the solution?
In reality, there is no one answer, and much of the future rests on China’s next moves. But, for many, the perplexing question persists: why have China not invaded yet? After all, Taiwan is only officially recognised by 12 small developing nations, a number that continues to decline. Even Taiwan’s strongest international relationships are not true diplomatic alliances at all but are unofficial partnerships with nations that openly support the PRC as the legitimate government. Notably, the US maintains a ‘One China’ policy but remains one of Taiwan’s most significant partners, due to the Taiwan Relations Act, a US law which stipulates that it “be the policy of the United States to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan”. However, given the new, unpredictable Trump administration, it is fair to argue this could be uncertain.
Nevertheless, all is not lost for Taiwan, and although the Chinese threat hasn’t disappeared, the fact remains that China has not yet felt comfortable enough to invade despite such assertive rhetoric, and there are several reasons for this hesitation.
First, Taiwan’s commitment to internal democracy has aligned the nation successfully with liberal international ideals and powerful capitalist interests, rendering its stability a priority for those opposing Chinese communism. Taiwan’s economic importance provides a significant strategic asset, with their dominance in technology and semiconductor production rendering their wellbeing vital to even the world’s most powerful economies, who would undoubtedly be concerned with China taking control over such a crucial industry.
Perhaps even more importantly, experts have suggested that a military takeover of Taiwan would prove difficult and costly given their mountainous terrain advantages, in addition to China being unlikely to prepare for a cross-strait invasion without being noticed. With the potential for anti-China cooperation to increase in response to such an attack, their long-term ambition for increased global influence would undoubtedly be at stake—something China will be taking into consideration.
Ultimately, the future for Taiwan remains uncertain. If they can continue to build up modern defence capabilities and increase international recognition, a Chinese invasion may continue to be deterred. But, for now, the rest of the world watches closely as the balance of power continues to rock back and forth between the two.
