War is not, and never has been, a straightforward red vs. blue, Jerry vs. Tommy, Charlie vs. GI’s affair, despite our inherent preference to label, box-up and simplify it in our minds. It comes in illusory and deceptive (much like drop and run Amazon delivery drivers in Fallowfield); in disappointingly complex forms which force us to question what actually qualifies as a war anymore?
The UN Charter doesn’t make it easy to quantify it either, stating that it is not required to formally declare war for a state of war to exist. Take, for example, the lack of declaration of war by Argentina or the UK during the Falklands conflict, or the US and its allies during the invasion of Iraq (sidenote: History Matters does an amazing video on the topic). After all, sending a plume-feathered Hussar to struttingly hand over a “Well let’s ‘av it then” message is so terribly out of fashion.
More relevant to the current European situation is most obviously the current war in Ukraine. Russia held onto the guise of its “special military operation” a full two years after it started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, by the time a confirmed near 38,000 people had died. Despite Ukraine having been in a state of war with Russia since its annexation of Crimea and proxy wars in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, western media only gave the state of affairs the accreditation it deserved when tanks started rolling on Kiev.
However, what the general (particularly West) European populace still refuses to recognise is the state of war which now exists between the rest of Europe and Russia. Assassinations on European soil of European citizens – be it perceived threats or old foes of the Kremlin – have been a staple of the Russian arsenal. Sergei Skripal in the 2018 Salisbury poisonings, and the Chechen commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin in 2019, are just a few examples. Of course, empty statements of condemnation and the expulsion of diplomats followed, which I’m sure made Vladimir Putin contemplate his naughty steps.
The FSB (the KGB’s uppity son) settling a few old scores can seem like trivial play, but when put in combination with recent blatant incursions over NATO territory, these add up to a state prescribed mission of distortion and chaos.
Cyberattacks are frequent and progressively more crippling on European businesses, as seen with the recent devastating impact on Jaguar Land Rover which is projected to amount to a loss of £1.5 billion in revenue. Not to mention cyberattacks on infrastructure, such as the successful targeting of Heathrow on the 20th of September. Whilst these are both unconfirmed to be Russian, the state is an open subscriber to this kind of warfare, with 257 information manipulation and interference incidents targeting Ukraine recorded from November 2023 and November 2024, 152 against France and 73 on Germany.
Further, Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace are taking on a new and serious manner of boldness. On 10 September 2025, 19 Russian drones flew directly into Polish airspace and crashed on Polish houses, on 19 September three MiG-31 jets flew into Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before NATO turned them away, and on 2 October multiple drones flew over Munich airport forcing the delay of thousands of passengers. These are not isolated cases, but an example of the systematic terror warfare being carried out by the Russian state against European countries, designed to sow fear into their populaces.
All this is intrinsically linked to the very real war in Ukraine. Putin has had little incentive with respect to international pressure from the United States to stop to prevent his ultimate aims, continuing to expend huge amounts of manpower and military resources into the conflict. However, Europe, if it chose, does have the capabilities and resources to arm Ukraine to victory and thus win its wider war with Russia wholesale.
European allies have largely replaced the shortfall of US aid that came with President Trump’s re-election, surpassing the US in total military aid since April 2025. Further, the EU has adopted four new sanction packages this year and is finalising a fifth. Most significantly, the Union is trying to make available the €140 billions of frozen Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine.
Whilst this is promising, what is a disgrace on the European’s part is that this Russian blood money has sat under our noses for three and half years and yet has not been fully tapped. What is even more embarrassing is the continued trade that the EU and Britain carries out with Russia, including pharmaceutical products, oil, nickel, natural gas, fertiliser, iron, and steel, fueling the Russian war machine. This must stop now, or we shall only hurt more for it in the future.
The biggest reason for hope in this continental confrontation is the successes of Ukraine through their almighty efforts against their Goliath. Ukraine’s constant adaption via harnessing new technologies, seen particularly in its homegrown drone industry, has turned the Ukrainian forces into one of the most formidable and efficient militaries in the world. The Russian summer offensive was prevented in achieving any real successes, and the targeting of Russia’s oil refinery infrastructure has caused widespread disruption on Russian consumers and its declining war-based economy; showing glimmers of sunshine that Ukraine can outlast the Bear and win this war.
We must therefore give Ukraine every resource, every weapon and every act of support, not meaningless statements of intent. Frozen assets must be utilised, defence spending pledges met, not just made, and all continued trade with Russia frozen.
Putin’s acts of terror and sabotage on us – Ukraine’s allies – are an attempt to cause fear, division, and disorder in our societies, stressing NATO’s collective resilience. A firm stance must be held, as Russian success in Ukraine will only embolden Putin. It will cost us far more in blood and treasure by allowing Putin success in Ukraine.
