Academics predict ‘voteless recovery’ for the Tories

Academics predicted a ‘voteless recovery’ for the Conservatives on the popular University of Manchester politics blog Policy@Manchester, in the wake of George Osborne’s budget last week.

The study, undertaken by Dr Robert Ford from The University of Manchester, Dr Will Jennings University of Southampton, and Dr Mark Pickup, from Simon Fraser University in Canada, argues that although the UK economy is showing real signs of recovery, this is not filtering into public opinion of the government.

“Most economists are agreed that Britain is heading towards a robust recovery: GDP is steadily growing, unemployment falling; business and consumers are growing in confidence”, Dr Ford, a lecturer in the University of Manchester politics department, said. “So today’s Budget statement will be surely be the sunniest in George Osborne’s Treasury career.

“But the enduring problem for the Tories is they have seen little evidence the improving economic climate is helping the Government’s political fortunes.

“As the months pass, they see no meaningful movement in the polls. Instead, the evidence points to a voteless recovery in 2015. Going on current figures, British voters are unlikely to give the Government any electoral reward for its “tough decisions” heralded by the Tories and Liberal Democrats over the past few years.”

The problem for the Coalition government in the run up to the general election next year will be convincing the electorate that recovery is well and truly underway, “voters have noticed the improved economic climate, though they have yet to give the government any credit for it”, says the study.

Dr Ford believes that as the months to the next general election count down, it will become harder and harder for the Conservatives to narrow the five per cent gap in the polls that exist between them and the Labour party.

The report concludes, “There is still time for the parties, and their leaders, to change their electoral fates, but it is starting to run out.”