After Trump’s shocking return to the White House in October, leaders all across the globe are fearing the prospect of US isolationism. Having pledged to end the war in Ukraine “in a day“, officials in Kyiv are likely concerned by Trump’s warm rapport with Putin and his frosty stance on military aid. But what will Trump actually do, and how will the world react?
What has Trump promised?
The president-elect’s pledge to immediately end the war in Ukraine is certainly bold, though how this will be achieved is less clear. While this simply may be Trumpian rhetoric, there are fears that a Republican White House may push Ukraine to give up territory in exchange for peace.
And whilst it is almost impossible that Kyiv will accept this, this could pave the way for the US to scale back its military aid – a worrying prospect for Zelensky, given that the US is Ukraine’s largest military backer, having provided $64.1 billion in military assistance.
Since the US presidential election on November 5 2024, the White House has green-lit the use of US-made missile systems to strike deep into Russian territory. Many have seen this bold move by the Biden administration as a last-minute attempt to boost Ukrainian resolve before the presidency changes hands.
Trump has had a fraught history with Ukraine. In 2019, a scandal broke after Trump allegedly sought to blackmail Kyiv, threatening to withhold aid if Zelenskyy did not investigate Joe Biden for corruption. More broadly, Trump-aligned Congressional Republicans have lead opposition to US support for Ukraine.
However, there have also been reports that Trump has spoken to Putin, warning him against escalation. The Kremlin has denied this, but it could be a sign that rhetoric may juxtapose with actual policy.
Where does this leave Ukraine?
It would not be an understatement to suggest that, facing the colossal Russian military, the Ukrainian armed forces are deeply dependent on outside support. Western arms provide a key advantage for Kyiv. As the US is by far the largest donor of military equipment, even the risk of this ending will change calculations in Ukraine.
Kyiv will seek to shore up ties with the Trump administration in the hope that this will prevent retraction of support; look at the way Volodymyr Zelenskyy, following Trump’s victory, praised Trump’s “peace through strength” approach. Time will tell if this type of flattery will be enough to get Trump on side.
What about Europe?
If Trump does cut off support, the first place Ukraine will look to is Europe. Not only will the onus be on the EU to provide greater support for Kyiv, but NATO members including Britain will be expected to step up. This will be a tall order.
The EU is the only organisation that can hope to match the scale of support provided by the US. However, much like the US, the EU will be beset by political issues. Primarily, the veto provided to member states means unanimity is needed for extra funding, making the pro-Russian government in Hungary a major road-block.
Furthermore, European interventions into foreign affairs, as well as significant spending programmes, always run the risk of antagonising the relationship between Brussels and member states. This is heightened by the rise of Eurosceptic parties, including the AfD in Germany and National Rally in France.
However, not all hope is lost. Regardless of whether Trump cuts funding, the US arms industry will continue to sell to Ukraine if Kyiv can continue to pay. Support will likely be forthcoming from the EU and NATO members. At the very least, Europe has already committed such significant funds to Ukraine that to end them would feel a pointless endeavour. The sunken-cost fallacy is a powerful thing.
Beyond this, whilst a Trump presidency may threaten Europe’s security, it may just spur a drive for “strategic autonomy“: Emmanuel Macron’s tag-line for a more self-sufficient Europe. If this enters the forefront of EU politics, it will first-and-foremost address support for Kyiv; not only funding the Ukrainian military but perhaps building up Europe’s defence industry.
The Trump presidency adds an element of uncertainty to the Ukraine war. Whilst it is not a given that Trump will retract support, Kyiv will certainly be nervous of any “peace plan”. However, Europe and the UK may have no choice but to fill the gap. Europe’s security, and its freedom, depends on it.
