There is no doubt that the 2024 general election was a humiliating defeat for the Conservatives. They lost over 250 seats in what was the worst result that the party has ever suffered. While the polls had long predicted a Labour landslide victory, with some having the Conservatives seats on double-digit seats, it was surreal watching them lose seat after seat on the night of July 4.
However, things have changed. On August 22 2024, a by-election was held for a Liberal Democrat-held seat on Three Rivers Council. The Conservatives gained the seat with a 22% swing, forcing the Liberal Democrats out of majority control. This was a by-election contested under uniquely difficult circumstances, as explained by Andrew Teale, so this could have been considered a fluke.
Then, on September 5, the Conservatives gained a seat from Labour in Redcar and Cleveland. They then gained three more seats on September 26, two from Labour, and one from the Greens. On October 17, when 16 by-elections were held, the Conservatives gained another three seats, two from Labour and one from the Liberal Democrats. There were significant swings to the Conservatives in the seats they held, such as a 10% swing in Windsor and Maidenhead.
Mark Pack’s by-election result scorecard shows that the Conservatives have gained a net 11 Council seats since the local elections of 2024, where they lost nearly half the seats they were defending and came third to the Liberal Democrats. Labour have lost a net 14 and the Liberal Democrats have lost a net 3.
Gaining 11 Council seats may not seem like a grand achievement, but local elections are often a litmus test to gauge the national mood. The Conservatives performed strongly in the 2021 local elections, owing to the “vaccine bounce“, but the year after, as Partygate and sleaze turned the national mood against them, they began to lose seats. Recent Council by-election results therefore may speak volumes about the current state of party politics.
It is important to note that the incumbent party rarely performs well in local elections, even when that party in government is popular. In 1999, Labour lost over 1,300 Council seats, despite polling around 20 points ahead of the Conservatives in May of that year.
Starmer’s Labour government is proving far from popular. A poll carried out on October 30-31 had the Conservatives ahead of Labour for the first time since December 6 2021, immediately before Partygate was unravelled. Starmer’s net approval ratings have plummeted to a subfreezing -30, even lower than Sunak. It may be unsurprising, therefore that Labour have been performing badly in Council by-elections.
Reasons for Conservative success recently are varied. Local factors can come into play; a strong local candidate backed by an organised party that can regularly deliver leaflets and doorknock is crucial to local electoral success.
However, national factors are also significant. The controversial decision to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance for pensioners has provoked outrage. Over 1 in 3 voters see this decision as the single worst thing Labour have done since being elected. 46% of over-70s voted Conservative in the 2024 general election, the age-group that backed the Conservatives the most. It might be that pensioners are now more motivated to vote Conservative as an anti-Labour vote.
The British press never gives Labour an easy ride. The Telegraph has been issued a warning from the Electoral Commission after publishing attack ads on Labour, including fears that Starmer’s victory would jeopardise the UK’s security. The Daily Mail has run stories about Deputy PM Angela Rayner “drinking whisky through a straw” and Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ hair. The Express, The Telegraph and The Daily Mail have also run stories about Starmer removing photos of Gladstone, Thatcher and Shakespeare.
These newspapers, generally consumed by older Conservative-inclined voters, are whipping up anti-Labour sentiment among their readership, even if these anti-Labour stories, like Reeves’ hair, are quite trivial. Traditional Conservative voters, who may not have voted in recent years or voted for another party, may now find it palatable to vote Conservative again, as they can rationalise voting for the opposition against what they perceive to be an abysmal, corrupt, ‘un-British’ Labour government.
The return of the Conservatives is a possibility in Greater Manchester. Conservative candidate Peter Crossen narrowly gained the Bramhall South and Woodford seat from Liberal Democrat Sandeep Kashyap on Stockport Council on October 31. Stockport was a Tory-free zone for nearly four months after the Conservatives lost all their Council seats in 2023, and Cheadle and Hazel Grove in the 2024 general election.
One thing is clear: the Conservatives have been deemed “the world’s most successful party” for a reason. Even now, while they are at their lowest point in history, they are not to be underestimated. It cannot be taken for granted that they will fade into irrelevance under Badenoch. They remain a serious electoral threat, and will stop at nothing to take back the ground that they have lost.
