In a week when unabated sunshine saw temperature records broken across the country, the clouds overhanging Keir Starmer’s premiership darkened. Albeit by only six votes, Reform overturned a 14,700-vote Labour majority to win in the Cheshire constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. A jubilant Nigel Farage flashed a characteristically slimy smirk to the cameras that surrounded him as he proclaimed that his party was now the main opposition to Labour.
The lead up to the by-election was overshadowed by the events that brought it about. Former MP Mike Amesbury was filmed punching a constituent after what turned out to be a very costly drinking session. Amesbury was suspended and later resigned his seat after being charged with assault. This will now be long forgotten with new headlines of Reform joy set to litter the front pages.
Labour’s defeat in Runcorn is in no way down to the drunken antics of an individual MP. The Labour party is now level with or behind Reform in most polls while both the party and Starmer’s favourability has fallen. The demise of Amesbury is a good analogy for Labour’s tanking popularity with the electorate as a whole. It has been the government’s punching down, first aimed at pensioners as the winter fuel allowance was taken away, and then disabled benefit claimants that has stoked resentment.
For Labour this result should serve as a wake-up call for a party that is sleepwalking towards further electoral defeat. Labour’s current plan to tackle Reform is clearly not working and a new approach is needed. Voters have turned to Reform in the desperate hope for change that has for so long been promised and for so long been allusive. Continued budget cuts are a lukewarm reheating of previous Conservative policy, far from the bold red “Change” they promised on the front of their manifesto less than a year ago.
Labour must reconnect with their historical electoral base who have been most disillusioned by the way the party seems to have turned their back on everything they once stood for. If not, the Red Wall may fall as it did in 2019’s Brexit election. This result in Runcorn, and Reform coming second in many seats in 2024, shows that this is possible.
As for Reform, this result and those in local elections show that the success Farage has long prophesied is not just a hypothetical lead in the polls. Farage has been able to profit from both a faltering Conservative opposition led by Kemi Badenoch and the backlash against Labour policy. He has also been able to control the debate on important issues such as immigration which has become an increasingly important issue with the British public.
A man that was once a fringe and extreme figure in British politics has become the voice of anger in a seemingly broken country. Farage is a symptom of a politics and a nation that has lost all sense of hope. The big vote winner now is fear: we have seen that in America, in Europe, and now on our own streets. Labour’s big challenge is to limit the role that this plays in the next election.
As the saying goes, a week in politics is a long time; four years, therefore, must be a very, very long time. That’s rare good news for Labour and anyone who views the rise of Reform with the same level of disgust as I. A Farage-led Reform government would not just attack the rights of immigrants and refugees but also the vital organs of our country including the NHS. For Keir Starmer, it’s time to wake up. It’s time for him to listen to the warning bells before it is too late.
