A convicted felon, a self-described dictator, an out-and-out demagogue solely focused on his own despotic view of what makes America great; this is who the American people have chosen to lead the most powerful country in the world.
The election of Donald Trump on November 5 should not have come as a surprise to anybody. The places Joe Biden could reach in 2020 – those working-class counties in Pennsylvania and the Great Lakes – were never going to unite foursquare behind a candidate whose very selection was inauspicious, blustered, and uninspiring. A hapless campaign of ignorant soundbites and a Clintonian contempt for half the electorate (see Biden’s “garbage” comment) has alienated a country that has shown once again that the politics of fear will always trump the politics of hubris and sneering.
The United States, once a firm defender of liberty and the undisputed leader of the free world, has succumbed to the terror of populism’s infatuation with autocracy and isolationism. Not since the interwar period has America been so scornful of its place in the international order and so petrified by the mounting challenges Western democracy faces in the 21st century.
The ramifications for the world could not be more dire: with Trump’s election, American membership in NATO is now in question. The Ukrainian cause – a fight not just for independence but freedom – is now all but doomed. Any accountability Israel may face in its actions in Gaza will be watered down, if not completely overlooked. China will be hardening its glare at Taiwan – one of the last bastions of democracy in that region.
At home, the consequences may be far-reaching. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK – an ugly tribute act to the MAGA project – will be emboldened by Trump’s searing comeback and America’s re-embrace of hard-right, fascistic leadership. His first term was worrying, but Trump’s second will see the largest deportation of undocumented immigrants the US has ever seen with an estimated 11 million people potentially seeing their livelihoods destroyed, families broken up, and lives endangered. The President-elect wants to use the military to help him do this in his four-year term, as well as introducing an expedited scheme to remove these poor souls without even a court hearing.
If this policy is even remotely successful – nay, even if it goes ahead – expect to see an emboldened and more boisterous Reform. Nigel Farage, now a sitting MP, with his bellicose cabal of anti-immigrant blowhards and an awesome following of hard-right supporters, will call for something eerily similar here. The anti-immigrant rhetoric that has been his raison d’etre for so long will be given the legitimacy it needs to continue seeping into Britain’s political discourse.
Expect, too, a more hardline Conservative Party, now controlled by an over-zealous and increasingly inflammatory lot of pugnaciously right-wing leadership. The redrawing of the UK’s own political map over the coming years will be a direct consequence of Trump’s rampant election victory. Where the surprise of Brexit set the precedent for Donald Trump’s first victory, his second victory will reciprocate.
In Europe, the various far-right parties there will be licking their lips and sharpening their blades, eager to continue the goose-stepping of pseudo-fascism into a continent that will be left to its own defence. The prospect of an isolated and abandoned Europe without the United States’ support in NATO will make voters there think twice about continuing its stalwart opposition to the growing threat Russia poses in the east. Appeasement will be the order of the day.
Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement Nationale in France will no doubt have the Elysée in touching distance when set against the deeply unpopular Emmanuel Macron in 2027. Germany’s AfD will continue growing in strength in the country’s former East. Both of these actors are overtly pro-Russian and venerate Vladimir Putin.
In such a dangerous and uncertain time, with the fate of Western democracy on the line, it is paramount that some country or other takes up the mantle of democracy’s firmest bulwark. With the US now completely checked out of the international commitments that have underpinned the free world since the Second World War, the case for liberal democracy must be made more fervently than ever.
Britain, fresh off its thumping defenestration of the centre-right, now finds itself in that unique place. The lone beacon of social democracy in the world is now tasked with the Himalayan effort to preserve the very foundations of Western democratic ideals.
The new Labour government has been preoccupied with reviving Britain’s ailing economy, with growth being Starmer and Reeves’ central mission. This will no doubt continue as Downing Street’s new occupants mature into seasoned governors who are able to concentrate on multiple issues effectively.
But Number 10 won’t be able to ignore the mounting geopolitical challenges the world faces. The growing belligerence of Russia and China, coupled with the ever-widening conflict in the Middle East, means that, unlike before, a very tangible ‘axis of evil’ has emerged in the world order. The balance of power in this world is sliding their way, not ours. For the UK, that spells immense danger, but also opportunity.
European militaries, including Britain’s, have become addicted to American immense manpower and resources. Only since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has defence spending amongst NATO allies rapidly increased above the 2pc minimum. A decade ago, only Greece, Estonia, the UK, and the US met this target.
The recent Budget announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves pushed Britain’s defence spending up by £2.9b, getting the UK well on the way to its target of 2.5pc of GDP spent on defence. This extra money will need to be spent wisely as the challenges facing Britain’s Armed Forces are marked.
The UK’s ever-shrinking Army, for instance, needs a monumental recruitment drive – the number of active personnel is expected to fall from a measly 80,000 to 70,000 troops next year, the lowest the number has been for more than two centuries, and far lower than the near-110,000 at the turn of the century.
Britain is one of only three NATO allies with nuclear capabilities, with four new Dreadnought Class submarines to enter service in the next decade. Militarily, this now puts the UK at the forefront of the alliance, being by far the most overtly anti-Russian country amongst the major countries. Article 5 of NATO dictates that when one country is attacked, all in the pact are attacked. Because of this, Britain will, whether it likes it or not, have to take up a more central role than it already plays in the alliance.
The UK must also work with European countries to protect democracy within their borders. Democratic resilience is crucial in a ‘post-Capitol Riots’ world. Efforts to combat disinformation online must ameliorate, and countries should be regulating social media giants and working with them to ensure the sanctity of democracy and its day-to-day norms are preserved.
Without this, the rot at the foundation of our societies will continue setting in. Social media has overtaken traditional formats as a primary source for people to access current affairs news. TikTok, Facebook, and X (formerly Twitter) have become unrivalled behemoths in communication and the sharing of information. The latter is now owned by Elon Musk, a militant supporter of the ultra-right who has been flagrant in utilising his platform to promote often nonsensical lies, garnering tens of millions of views.
The EU is the world’s regulatory giant – most recently with its legislation forcing all mobile phones to use the same charging port, much to Apple’s chagrin. There is ample scope for Britain to work closely with the Union to implement more far-reaching and restrictive legislation surrounding user verification, age restrictions, and AI-powered content. Starmer has shown himself resilient against Elon Musk’s attacks on him regarding the Summer riots, so the undoubted ire he will draw from the billionaire by doing this should be water off of a duck’s back.
But, above all else, Britain must ensure it does not itself wander into the hinterlands of hard-right populism. The rise of Nigel Farage, Tommy Robinson, and Lee Anderson has been aided because 14 years of Conservative government have seen living standards decline, growth stagnate, and public services on their knees. This has spawned cynicism, apathy, and distrust of political institutions that the right has historically tapped into well.
For the public to get behind any geopolitical ventures the new government will be tasked with, the UK’s economic outlook has to be far rosier – in short, people’s pockets must feel fuller. The rise in the minimum wage as well as the unexpected levels of investment in public services made in last week’s Budget spell good things for the economic prospects of those working people who might be flirting with Reform or a rejuvenated Conservative Party wandering rightward. But this growth mission needs to be accelerated – the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the Budget will see GDP increase no more than 2pc year-on-year until 2029.
By the next election, British families need to see a substantial difference in earnings and in living standards. Otherwise, the same discontent that brought Trump back to power will no doubt be replicated here.
To do all of this would be a significant task for the government. Going against the grain of global politics will feel Sisyphean at times, but to shy away from the challenges of the modern world would be a grave mistake. If Britain is serious about reclaiming its place on the world stage as a major player after nearly a decade of withdrawal, it must be that bulwark against autocracy.
The world order is shifting, but not irrevocably. It is now up to this country to prevent the unthinkable and safeguard the free, democratic way of life that it helped forge. In that sense, Britain must ask itself – if the free world’s oldest defender won’t come to the rescue, who will?
